Re: Dirty Laundry...

>> Notice that both Proctor and Gamble and Dell computers have recently
>> sustained large losses in the futures markets. Maybe they're gambling,
>> maybe they're funnelling money someplace. Who knows?
 
>Given the sums involved, if the firms wished to launder money in this
>manner they would not resort to silly martingale schemes but would
>just bribe a broker to swap tickets. They could not possibly have
>managed to "double the bet" often enough not to go broke. However, in
>both cases, I am sufficiently familiar with the events to very
>seriously doubt that any profits laundering was taking place at all.

I think you misunderstand what I suggested might possibly have
been happening. If a potential launderer guesses the market correctly,
then they don't close out their position. They just let it keep
losing money because they know that they're piling it up elsewhere. There
is no need to do any doubling. 

Someone else has pointed out a large company in Chile recently lost
a small fortune on financial trades. They placed bets on the market
and  didn't cut their losses. 

Another potential excursion into hypothetical guessing might suggest
that the reason the losses were so big is that they _were_ trying to 
launder a much smaller amount and they found themselves forced to
keep doubling. But, again: who knows?  

Don't get me wrong. Bribing a broker to swap tickets is an okay
system, but it may leave too great a paper trail as the recent news
has shown us.

Peter Wayner says:
> I think you misunderstand what I suggested might possibly have
> been happening. If a potential launderer guesses the market correctly,
> then they don't close out their position. They just let it keep
> losing money because they know that they're piling it up elsewhere.

I see that you have no idea of how futures prices move.

What makes you so sure a position isn't going to reverse itself? What
makes you think that it will necessarily follow a trend? Ever do any
statistical analysis on futures prices? You will find that they do not
move in an obvious or predictable manner. A price that drops in the
morning might suddenly reverse itself on a dime at noon and rise until
one only to plunge again to the close. Some unusual people do pretty
well with trading, but the vast majority of people do not.

> Someone else has pointed out a large company in Chile recently lost
> a small fortune on financial trades. They placed bets on the market
> and  didn't cut their losses. 

Actually, you have the wrong country and the wrong situation, but lets
ignore that.

Rather than hypothesizing, allow me to suggest that you actually
demonstrate your money laundering prowess in a live demonstration.

Perry