Lotto odds

Tim May said,

    ...As for lotto, simple calculations tell anyone that the best way
    to win is not to play.  The return _at best_ is 30 or 40 cents on
    the dollar, with the rest going to all the various programs the
    lotto is supposed to support.  The more you play, the more you
    lose.

Actually, if memory serves, the CA Lotto claims to return 50% of
income in prizes with the remainder divided between schools and
"administration."  Better than 30-40, but still worse than odds on any
casino game or even the "numbers racket" run by organized crime.

However, one can improve the percentage by only playing lotto after 1
or more games where there was no perfect match, as often happens,
where some of the prize money is carried over to the next game, and so
on, until eventually somebody wins the grand prize.

After some number "x" of passed games, the odds turn in favor of the
player; but not by too much since this is just when large numbers of
people play and if more than one perfect ticket is played, the prize
is split.

Calculation of "x" is not "simple", since you also have to figure in
the 20-year (with no interest) payout of large prizes.

One other tip for lotto players:  Never mark your ticket with any
recognizable pattern.  The random "quick pick" is probably best.
Reason: A pattern is equally likely to be picked at random as a "quick
pick" but much -more- likely to also be picked by some other schmuck.
So if your pattern pick wins, you're more likely to have to split the
prize.

--
edgar@spectrx.sbay.org (Edgar W. Swank)
SPECTROX SYSTEMS +1.408.252.1005  Cupertino, Ca

Edgar Swank wrote:

> Tim May said,
> 
>     ...As for lotto, simple calculations tell anyone that the best way
>     to win is not to play.  The return _at best_ is 30 or 40 cents on
>     the dollar, with the rest going to all the various programs the
>     lotto is supposed to support.  The more you play, the more you
>     lose.
> 
> Actually, if memory serves, the CA Lotto claims to return 50% of
> income in prizes with the remainder divided between schools and

Maybe, but the state has a wonderful scam of paying off a "5 million
dollar jackpot" over 20 years; the true value (what the same deal
would cost you to buy as an annuity) is less than $5 M, possibly much
less. If private outfits did this, they'd be jailed.

> "administration."  Better than 30-40, but still worse than odds on any
> casino game or even the "numbers racket" run by organized crime.
              ^^^^^^^
"Or even"? The numbers games almost always have much better odds than
the State pays...that's one reason for their popularity (another is
tax avoidance).

> Calculation of "x" is not "simple", since you also have to figure in
> the 20-year (with no interest) payout of large prizes.

Oh, I see you mentioned this scam. (Calculation should still be
simple, as any spreadsheet can handle discounted present values and
the like.)

> One other tip for lotto players:  Never mark your ticket with any

I've never played, and never plan to. Money down the drain.

On the other hand, I play the stock market, and my losses in one day
probably dwarf the lottery ticket losses of a small town. But I win
more than I lose, because the stock market is not a zero sum game.

Sorry for talking about non-crypto things here, but volume on the
Cypherpunks list has remained abnormally low since the rolling outages
of a couple of weeks ago...I suspect we lost some folks.

--Tim May


-- 
..........................................................................
Timothy C. May         | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,  
tcmay@netcom.com       | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
408-688-5409           | knowledge, reputations, information markets, 
W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA  | black markets, collapse of governments.
Higher Power: 2^859433 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available.
"National borders are just speed bumps on the information superhighway."

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In list.cypherpunks, tcmay@netcom.com writes:

> Maybe, but the state has a wonderful scam of paying off a "5 million
> dollar jackpot" over 20 years; the true value (what the same deal
> would cost you to buy as an annuity) is less than $5 M, possibly much
> less. If private outfits did this, they'd be jailed.

Jailed?  Publisher's Clearing House, American Family Puublishers and
Reader's Digest have done this for years.
- -- 
Roy M. Silvernail --  roy@sendai.cybrspc.mn.org
                   "I'm a family man, model citizen."
                                      -- Warren Zevon

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C'punks,

On Tue, 28 Jun 1994, Roy M. Silvernail wrote:

> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> 
> In list.cypherpunks, tcmay@netcom.com writes:
> 
> > Maybe, but the state has a wonderful scam of paying off a "5 million
> > dollar jackpot" over 20 years; the true value (what the same deal
> > would cost you to buy as an annuity) is less than $5 M, possibly much
> > less. If private outfits did this, they'd be jailed.
> 
> Jailed?  Publisher's Clearing House, American Family Puublishers and
> Reader's Digest have done this for years.

I don't think so.  While they now engage in this questionable practice,
I don't think they've been doing for more than 2-3 years.  If I had to
guess, I would think they only feel safe in doing so because the states
have already established a legal precedent with their lotterys.  They (the
states) would be hard pressed to make a distinction between their annuity
funded 20 year payoffs and those of Publisher's Clearing House.  Thus the 
State's corruption taints the free market.


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