Re: Responding to Pre-dawn Unannounced Ninja Raids

At  3:10 PM 7/22/96 -0400, Hallam-Baker wrote:
>If you apply genetic programming techniques to the system the strategy
>that evolves is typically a cooperative one. The facts is that the
>theory applied in an evolutionary context disproves Perry.

I don't understand this conclusion.  One book people aside, it is generally
believed that humans evolved in an evolutionary context and they certainly
frequently use cooperative strategies.  Cooperation usually also involves
the ability to sanction misbehavior.  Unilateral disarmament is throwing
away your sanction.


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>I don't understand this conclusion.  One book people aside, it is generally
>believed that humans evolved in an evolutionary context and they certainly
>frequently use cooperative strategies.  Cooperation usually also involves
>the ability to sanction misbehavior.  Unilateral disarmament is throwing
>away your sanction.

That depends on the circumstances. If you are arguing the case for 
unilateral disarmament or unilateral reduction. In many cases there was a
deliberated attempt to confuse one with the other. Unilateral 
reduction can be the right move to make.

In the case of a minor nuclear power such as the UK unilateral
disarmament may be the right move if the force is insignificant and
the cost of maintaining it is more than the ecconomy can afford or
if it requires compromise of foreign policy in general to keep
the supplier happy.

Somehow I think it should be obvious that issues such as disarmament
are rather more complex than a theoretical game theory model can
capture. Theory should inform understanding, uncovering cause/effect
relationships. That does not mean that all such relationships can
be captured.

The attempt to move from game theory to nuclear disarmament policy
is a tenuous enough move which works primarily because both sides 
are rational actors who are employing the same ideological and 
analytical framework to achieve a common goal (avoiding mutual 
anihilation). It is an even more tenuous connection to apply it to 
the home burglar situation. Burglars are not rational actors, and
are more likely to have their behaviour determined by drugs or
alcohol than analytical game theory.

The facts are very clear, if you have a handgun in the house it is
far more likely to kill a member of the familly than stop an
intruder. The NRA know this which is why they have lobbied for the
CDC to stop research in this area - they do not like the facts.

As someone who qualifies to be issued with a handgun under the UK
regulations I have been informed that the protection offered is
marginal at best. An intruder is certain to be more prepared than
the intended victim, it is extreemly unlikely that the intruder will
not get the first shot in.


		Phill

On Tue, 23 Jul 1996 hallam@Etna.ai.mit.edu wrote:
> The facts are very clear, if you have a handgun in the house it is
> far more likely to kill a member of the familly than stop an
> intruder. The NRA know this which is why they have lobbied for the
> CDC to stop research in this area - they do not like the facts.

     That family member is usually not killed in an accident. You are 
also more likely to be stabbed by a family member, beaten by a family 
member, raped by a family member, and stolen from by a family member. 

     Maybe we should outlaw families. 

> As someone who qualifies to be issued with a handgun under the UK
> regulations I have been informed that the protection offered is
> marginal at best. An intruder is certain to be more prepared than
> the intended victim, it is extreemly unlikely that the intruder will
> not get the first shot in.

      This sir is pure crap. In fact it is far more likely that an armed 
and prepared occupant will take out a thug. There have been 2 cases here 
in Chicago where elderly citizens (one 86 years old, and in a wheelchair)
got the drop on teenage hooligans that were in the process of burglarizing
their homes (in the case of the 86 year old, sexual assault was also occuring)
In both cases at least on of the perps died. As they deserved too. 

      These people (burglars) are not worth the bullet it takes to get rid of 
them. 

Petro, Christopher C.
petro@suba.com <prefered for any non-list stuff>
snow@smoke.suba.com