A _REALLY_ Interesting Bet

Betting on football is one thing, but some of us would be very
interested in the odds on US presidential election outcomes as
November approaches. This kind of betting is illegal here, and
I haven't looked lately for a "Ladbroke's" type site, but it is
interesting because the betting odds from across the Atlantic
more closely match eventual election results than the annoying
calls from Gallup & Roper during suppertime. I have posted here,
anonymously, on this topic before, but some of you are aware of
who I am. I'll thank you to keep that a secret. ;}

Anonymous wrote:
> 
> Betting on football is one thing, but some of us would be very
> interested in the odds on US presidential election outcomes as
> November approaches. This kind of betting is illegal here, and
> I haven't looked lately for a "Ladbroke's" type site, but it is
> interesting because the betting odds from across the Atlantic
> more closely match eventual election results than the annoying
> calls from Gallup & Roper during suppertime. I have posted here,
> anonymously, on this topic before, but some of you are aware of
> who I am. I'll thank you to keep that a secret. ;}

Thinking about this some more - what would people want to see in such a
betting system.  Would you be happy with two choices?:

	(Clinton/Dole) or Other

or three choices?:

	Clinton, Dole or Other

or would you want more choices than this?  I'm asking, since we've been
tossing around this presidential election idea for a few days now, but
since we're not Americans, we're not too sure what is a suitable set
(bearing in mind that our idea for this will get more difficult as the
number of choices increases).

Gary
--
pub  1024/C001D00D 1996/01/22  Gary Howland <gary@systemics.com>
Key fingerprint =  0C FB 60 61 4D 3B 24 7D  1C 89 1D BE 1F EE 09 06

On Wed, 28 Aug 1996, Gary Howland wrote:

> Anonymous wrote:
> > 
> > Betting on football is one thing, but some of us would be very
> > interested in the odds on US presidential election outcomes as
> > November approaches. This kind of betting is illegal here, and
> > I haven't looked lately for a "Ladbroke's" type site, but it is
> > interesting because the betting odds from across the Atlantic
> > more closely match eventual election results than the annoying
> > calls from Gallup & Roper during suppertime. I have posted here,
> > anonymously, on this topic before, but some of you are aware of
> > who I am. I'll thank you to keep that a secret. ;}
> 
> Thinking about this some more - what would people want to see in such a
> betting system.  Would you be happy with two choices?:
> 
> 	(Clinton/Dole) or Other
> 
> or three choices?:
> 
> 	Clinton, Dole or Other
> 
> or would you want more choices than this?  I'm asking, since we've been
> tossing around this presidential election idea for a few days now, but
> since we're not Americans, we're not too sure what is a suitable set
> (bearing in mind that our idea for this will get more difficult as the
> number of choices increases).

Are these issues not listed currently on the IDEA FUTURES exchange?

Anyone have the URL?

> 
> Gary
> --
> pub  1024/C001D00D 1996/01/22  Gary Howland <gary@systemics.com>
> Key fingerprint =  0C FB 60 61 4D 3B 24 7D  1C 89 1D BE 1F EE 09 06
> 

--
I hate lightning - finger for public key - Vote Monarchist
unicorn@schloss.li

Black Unicorn <unicorn@schloss.li> writes:
>Are these issues not listed currently on the IDEA FUTURES exchange?

>Anyone have the URL?

Idea Futures is dead, and the torch has passed to Foresight Exchange (FX),
which is at http://www.ideosphere.com/ideosphere/ .  You can bet on a number
of political issues (US and other), though not (yet) for real money.

Bill Clinton re-elected last sold at 89 (out of 100), and
Dole beats Clinton      last sold at 15.

This doesn't track the polls, which typically ask who the potential voter
would vote for rather than who they think will win the election.
Other issues:

Percentage of popular vote to Dem candidate: 47
"               "             Rep    "     : 44
"               "             Other  "     : 12

Note that there may be an opportunity for arbitrage when numbers don't add
up to 100; but I'm simplifying, since there are separate buy and sell bids.

Third party candidate gets the most votes  :  4
Clinton landslide                            20
Dole landslide                                4
Democrats retake the House in 96             45
Democrats retake the Senate in 96            30
Percent electoral votes to Democrats         70
President without popular majority           55
Clinton resigns or impeached by end of 96     1

And so on...

	Jim Gillogly
	Hevensday, 7 Halimath S.R. 1996, 02:29

Am I the only one who is seeing more and more parallels to Brunner's book
"The Shockwave Rider" in the world?  I thought we were getting close 
enough, but this clinches it.  Welcome to the Delphi Oracle.

Enjoy your stay.

Milie
sfuze@tiac.net

Anonymous wrote:
> 
> Betting on football is one thing, but some of us would be very
> interested in the odds on US presidential election outcomes as
> November approaches. This kind of betting is illegal here, and
> I haven't looked lately for a "Ladbroke's" type site, but it is
> interesting because the betting odds from across the Atlantic
> more closely match eventual election results than the annoying
> calls from Gallup & Roper during suppertime. I have posted here,
> anonymously, on this topic before, but some of you are aware of
> who I am. I'll thank you to keep that a secret. ;}


This is an interesting bet.  Can anyone provide me with a list of
candidates for the election?

Many thanks,

Gary
--
pub  1024/C001D00D 1996/01/22  Gary Howland <gary@systemics.com>
Key fingerprint =  0C FB 60 61 4D 3B 24 7D  1C 89 1D BE 1F EE 09 06