Re: FCPUNX:Show Me the Warheads!

At 9:03 PM -0700 9/4/97, Mike Duvos wrote:
>>In an interview to be aired on "60 Minutes" this Sunday, Alexandr
>>Lebed, former Russian National Security Advisor, will reveal that
>>his country has lost track of more than 100 nuclear bombs made to
>>look like suitcases, and has no idea what happened to them.

At 10:13 PM 9/4/97 -0700, Tim May wrote:
> Stay away from soft targets (Tel Aviv, Haifa, the ZOG section of Jerusalem,
> New York, Washington, and so on--Harbors (e.g., Haifa, NYC) are pretty
> likely targets, due to the extreme ease of delivery). But also be prepared
> for major disruptions and panic even if you are nowhere near the blast.

Relax:   Anyone who can afford nukes, probably won't use them without
very good reason.

By the way, I have noticed that the Israelis have lately taken a considerably
more conciliatory attitude towards non state entitities.
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              				|  
We have the right to defend ourselves	|   http://www.jim.com/jamesd/
and our property, because of the kind	|  
of animals that we are. True law	|   James A. Donald
derives from this right, not from the	|  
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At 9:19 AM -0700 9/8/97, James A. Donald wrote:

>At 10:13 PM 9/4/97 -0700, Tim May wrote:
>> Stay away from soft targets (Tel Aviv, Haifa, the ZOG section of Jerusalem,
>> New York, Washington, and so on--Harbors (e.g., Haifa, NYC) are pretty
>> likely targets, due to the extreme ease of delivery). But also be prepared
>> for major disruptions and panic even if you are nowhere near the blast.
>
>Relax:   Anyone who can afford nukes, probably won't use them without
>very good reason.
>
>By the way, I have noticed that the Israelis have lately taken a considerably
>more conciliatory attitude towards non state entitities.

The targets may not even be political.

Imagine the profits to be made by shorting a bunch of high tech, networking
stocks and then detonating a package near the major NAPs clustered in
Silicon Valley? Not to mention the direct effects and the panic effects on
Intel, Sun, Netscape, Apple, Cisco, 3COM, and a hundred other such
companies.

Conventional explosives could knock out MAE-West or any other single NAP,
but even a low-yield nuke would trigger the panic, fallout, and temporary
abandonment of facilities. Cisco and Intel would be massively disrupted for
at least several months, and might not recover for years....

(Conventional explosives could also cause a billion or more dollars worth
of damage to a major wafer fabrication plant, of course, but the
manufacturing capacity could be shifted to other plants in a matter of
months. Some major short sale opportunities, but not nearly what a nuke
could do to a _region_, in terms of direct blast effects, fallout in
surrounding city blocks (tens of square city blocks, at the least, esp.
give OSHA standards, etc.), and the sheer panic effect.)

Similar effects would be felt if a suitcase nuke were detonated in Chicago
near the futures/options markets, in Nuke York City in almost any of the
locations, in the City of London, and so on. The best target for such a
suitcase nuke would require careful planning.

(Very speculatively, a terrorist group might actually gain more by hitting
a financial or high tech center, and multiplying their assets by factors of
hundreds or thousands, thus allowing them to gain more conventional
leverage. Of course, their sudden new wealth would make them the suspects
in such a bombing.)

By carefully using cutouts for the short positions (lawyers in distributed
countries, for example), and by buying puts (huge leverage, of course), the
risks to an "investment group" could be minimal.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This is not investement advice. I am not a Certified
Nuclear Hedging Advisor, and my knowledge of the effects of nuclear weapons
on financial markets is based on speculation. In other words, your
megatonnage may vary.

There's something wrong when I'm a felon under an increasing number of laws.
Only one response to the key grabbers is warranted: "Death to Tyrants!"
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
tcmay@got.net  408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Higher Power: 2^1398269     | black markets, collapse of governments.
"National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."

> 
> (Conventional explosives could also cause a billion or more dollars worth
> of damage to a major wafer fabrication plant, of course, but the
> manufacturing capacity could be shifted to other plants in a matter of
> months. Some major short sale opportunities, but not nearly what a nuke
> could do to a _region_, in terms of direct blast effects, fallout in
> surrounding city blocks (tens of square city blocks, at the least, esp.
> give OSHA standards, etc.), and the sheer panic effect.)
> 

On of my favorite analyses of a similar scenario is contained in "The
Curve of Binding Energy" by John McPhee (available at your local
Borders or Barnes and Noble).  He basically interviews a high energy
physicist and works out the back of the envelope calculations on
yields, where to get the plutonium, where and how to place the device,
etc.  A key point was that a high efficiency device is not required.  
A dirty 1.5 kiloton gadget placed on the 40th floor of the World Trade
Center takes out one tower and kills a shit load of folks in the
adjacent tower.  Includes other rules of thumb such as "one kiloton of
explosives vaporizes one kiloton of matter".  YMMV, don't try this at
home kids, etc, etc.

At 12:23 PM 9/8/97 -0700, Eric Blossom wrote:
>On of my favorite analyses of a similar scenario is contained in "The
>Curve of Binding Energy" by John McPhee (available at your local
>Borders or Barnes and Noble). 

Definitely a worthwhile read.  Unless I'm mixing it up with another book,
it also is a good history of now political entrepreneur John Aristotle
Phillips,
the kid from Princeton who designed a nuclear bomb for his junior physics
project because he needed a good paper to pull his grades up.
Some of his work was actual physics; much was social engineering,
like asking the guy at duPont what explosives they'd used.
The Pakistani government, which at the time was lobbying Congress
for assistance with their purely peaceful electric-power nuclear reactors,
was also trying to buy a copy of Phillips's bomb design paper...

> He basically interviews a high energy physicist and works out the 
Ted Taylor?
>A key point was that a high efficiency device is not required.  
>A dirty 1.5 kiloton gadget placed on the 40th floor of the World Trade
>Center takes out one tower and kills a shit load of folks in the
>adjacent tower. 
On the other hand, 0.5 kt of ANFO in the basement wasn't quite enough
to take the towers out.


However, we need to get off this "Nuke Washington!" kick,
and on to something more realistic like "Wiretap DiFi!"

On Mon, 8 Sep 1997, Bill Stewart wrote:
> However, we need to get off this "Nuke Washington!" kick,
> and on to something more realistic like "Wiretap DiFi!"

I'd like to ask that if anyone is planning to Nuke Washington, they
politely let me know so I can go on an extended business trip to the
Montana mountains. I mean, it's just common courtesy!

-Declan

At 6:14 PM -0700 9/9/97, Declan McCullagh wrote:
>On Mon, 8 Sep 1997, Bill Stewart wrote:
>> However, we need to get off this "Nuke Washington!" kick,
>> and on to something more realistic like "Wiretap DiFi!"
>
>I'd like to ask that if anyone is planning to Nuke Washington, they
>politely let me know so I can go on an extended business trip to the
>Montana mountains. I mean, it's just common courtesy!

I can't promise anything, but I plan to be advancing the cause of crypto
anarchy on the Stanford campus on Friday, September 19th. After that I may
be off the list for a while, as I'm heading north.

--Tim May

There's something wrong when I'm a felon under an increasing number of laws.
Only one response to the key grabbers is warranted: "Death to Tyrants!"
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
tcmay@got.net  408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Higher Power: 2^1398269     | black markets, collapse of governments.
"National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."

--- On Sep 08, Eric Blossom apparently wrote ----------------------------------

> > (Conventional explosives could also cause  a billion or more dollars
> > worth of damage  to a major wafer fabrication plant,  of course, but
> > the manufacturing  capacity could  be shifted to  other plants  in a
> > matter  of months.  Some  major short  sale  opportunities, but  not
> > nearly what a nuke could do to  a _region_, in terms of direct blast
> > effects, fallout  in surrounding  city blocks  (tens of  square city
> > blocks, at the least, esp. give OSHA standards, etc.), and the sheer
> > panic effect.)

>
> On of my favorite analyses of  a similar scenario is contained in "The
> Curve  of Binding  Energy" by  John  McPhee (available  at your  local
> Borders or  Barnes and Noble).  He basically interviews a  high energy
> physicist  and works  out the  back  of the  envelope calculations  on
> yields, where to get the plutonium, where and how to place the device,
> etc. A key point was that a  high efficiency device is not required. A
> dirty 1.5 kiloton  gadget placed on the 40th floor  of the World Trade
> Center takes  out one  tower and  kills a  shit load  of folks  in the
> adjacent tower. Includes other rules of  thumb such as "one kiloton of
> explosives vaporizes one  kiloton of matter". YMMV, don't  try this at
> home kids, etc, etc.

Destruction by a  nuclear blast is most likely not  even the issue here.
Using a  relatively small amount  of plutonium  (ie. not even  enough to
produce a  critical mass) and enough  explosives to blast this  into the
atmosphere  you  can  kill  a  (very) large  number  of  people  over  a
relatively  small amount  of  time due  to  plutonium toxication.  These
devices are the real "dirty  gadgets", not really expensive and therefor
perfectly suitable for terrorist organisations.

But what a dreadfull way to die...

--- and thus sprach: Eric Blossom <eb@comsec.com> -----------------------------

Ciao,
Unicorn.
-- 
======= _ __,;;;/ TimeWaster on http://www.IAEhv.nl/users/hvdl ==============
     ,;( )_, )~\| A Truly Wise Man Never Plays   PGP: 64 07 5D 4C 3F 81 22 73
    ;; //  `--;     Leapfrog with a Unicorn...        52 9D 87 08 51 AA 35 F0
==='= ;\ = | ==== Youth is not a time in life, it's a State of Mind! ========

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In <19970909130000.60003@sequent.com>, on 09/09/97 
   at 01:00 PM, Unicorn <hvdl@sequent.com> said:

>Destruction by a  nuclear blast is most likely not  even the issue here.
>Using a  relatively small amount  of plutonium  (ie. not even  enough to
>produce a  critical mass) and enough  explosives to blast this  into the
>atmosphere  you  can  kill  a  (very) large  number  of  people  over  a
>relatively  small amount  of  time due  to  plutonium toxication.  These
>devices are the real "dirty  gadgets", not really expensive and therefor
>perfectly suitable for terrorist organisations.

>But what a dreadfull way to die...


The US military during WWII had plans of doing just that in Europe to
poison the crops and aid in the defeat of Germany. 

Luck for Europe this was never followed through.

- -- 
- ---------------------------------------------------------------
William H. Geiger III  http://www.amaranth.com/~whgiii
Geiger Consulting    Cooking With Warp 4.0

Author of E-Secure - PGP Front End for MR/2 Ice
PGP & MR/2 the only way for secure e-mail.
OS/2 PGP 2.6.3a at: http://www.amaranth.com/~whgiii/pgpmr2.html                        
- ---------------------------------------------------------------

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"William H. Geiger III" <whgiii@amaranth.com> writes:

> 
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> 
> In <19970909130000.60003@sequent.com>, on 09/09/97 
>    at 01:00 PM, Unicorn <hvdl@sequent.com> said:
> 
> >Destruction by a  nuclear blast is most likely not  even the issue here.
> >Using a  relatively small amount  of plutonium  (ie. not even  enough to
> >produce a  critical mass) and enough  explosives to blast this  into the
> >atmosphere  you  can  kill  a  (very) large  number  of  people  over  a
> >relatively  small amount  of  time due  to  plutonium toxication.  These
> >devices are the real "dirty  gadgets", not really expensive and therefor
> >perfectly suitable for terrorist organisations.
> 
> >But what a dreadfull way to die...
> 
> 
> The US military during WWII had plans of doing just that in Europe to
> poison the crops and aid in the defeat of Germany. 
> 
> Luck for Europe this was never followed through.

Actually, the Germans were aware of the plans and indicated that
they'd kill the about 500K U.S. and British POWs if this happened.
(They treated the latter much better than they treated Polish
and Russian POWs, who were often summarily gassed.)
For the same reason the Germans and the Allies didn't use poison
gas in Europe during WW2, although both sides used it liberally
in WW1, and the Japanese used it a lot against the Chinese.
Game theory and stuff. :-)

---

Dr.Dimitri Vulis KOTM
Brighton Beach Boardwalk BBS, Forest Hills, N.Y.: +1-718-261-2013, 14.4Kbps

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In <7k3Tce1w165w@bwalk.dm.com>, on 09/10/97 
   at 04:54 PM, dlv@bwalk.dm.com (Dr.Dimitri Vulis KOTM) said:

>"William H. Geiger III" <whgiii@amaranth.com> writes:

>> 
>> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
>> 
>> In <19970909130000.60003@sequent.com>, on 09/09/97 
>>    at 01:00 PM, Unicorn <hvdl@sequent.com> said:
>> 
>> >Destruction by a  nuclear blast is most likely not  even the issue here.
>> >Using a  relatively small amount  of plutonium  (ie. not even  enough to
>> >produce a  critical mass) and enough  explosives to blast this  into the
>> >atmosphere  you  can  kill  a  (very) large  number  of  people  over  a
>> >relatively  small amount  of  time due  to  plutonium toxication.  These
>> >devices are the real "dirty  gadgets", not really expensive and therefor
>> >perfectly suitable for terrorist organisations.
>> 
>> >But what a dreadfull way to die...
>> 
>> 
>> The US military during WWII had plans of doing just that in Europe to
>> poison the crops and aid in the defeat of Germany. 
>> 
>> Luck for Europe this was never followed through.

>Actually, the Germans were aware of the plans and indicated that they'd
>kill the about 500K U.S. and British POWs if this happened. (They treated
>the latter much better than they treated Polish and Russian POWs, who
>were often summarily gassed.)
>For the same reason the Germans and the Allies didn't use poison gas in
>Europe during WW2, although both sides used it liberally in WW1, and the
>Japanese used it a lot against the Chinese. Game theory and stuff. :-)

Well part of the problem with using chemical agents is they are not very
efficient. This is a lesson that was learned in WWI and most likely was
the largest factor in them not being used durring WWII (durring WWI one
was just as likely to be hit by one's own gas as the enemy was).

It is even questionable as a terror weapon against civilian targets due to
the quantities that would be needed to attack a large city like London.


- -- 
- ---------------------------------------------------------------
William H. Geiger III  http://www.amaranth.com/~whgiii
Geiger Consulting    Cooking With Warp 4.0

Author of E-Secure - PGP Front End for MR/2 Ice
PGP & MR/2 the only way for secure e-mail.
OS/2 PGP 2.6.3a at: http://www.amaranth.com/~whgiii/pgpmr2.html                        
- ---------------------------------------------------------------

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