Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century

Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century

1.      The United States will experience a significant economic 
recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.

2.      As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s 
become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic 
increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.

3.      America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in 
many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it 
related to racial/ethnic problems.

4.      Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will 
increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement 
and security problem.

5.      As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there 
will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take 
the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.

6.      Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a 
"retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security 
communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of 
technological advances, many companies and corporations will also 
move out of the urban environments as well.

7.      Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law 
enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become 
privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies 
will primarily serve urban and rural communities.

8.      Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent 
roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized 
military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance 
and terrorist incidents.

9.      Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's 
prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence.

10.     With the decrease of the possibility of major global 
warfare, the United States military will take on an increased 
domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement 
agencies.



John Young wrote:
> 
> Tim asks:
> 
> >Freeh and Company continue to mumble about "meeting
> >the legitmate needs of law enforcement." What can they
> >be speaking of?
> ...
> >Obviously his side is contemplating domestic crypto restrictions.
> 
> Threat of terrorism will be the impetus for applying national security
> restrictions domestically, for relaxing cold war limitations on spying
> on Americans, for dissolving barriers between law enforcement
> and military/intelligence agencies.
> 
> Technical means for access to encrypted data will probably
> come first in communications, then to stored material. There
> will be an agreement for increased CALEA wiretap funding, which
> is what the two cellular and wired suits against the FBI intend,
> (paralleling what the hardware and software industries want from
> federal buyers of security products).
> 
> This will provide the infrastructural regime for the gov to monitor
> and store domestic traffic as NSA does for the global, using the
> same technology (NSA may provide service to domestic
> LEA as it now does for other gov customers for intel).
> 
> Other access will come through hardware and software for
> computers, paralleling technology developed for telecomm tapping,
> tracking and monitoring.
> 
> Most probably through overt/covert features of microprocessors
> and OS's, as reported recently of Wintel and others, but also
> probably with special chips for DSP and software for modular
> design -- why build from scratch when these handy kits are
> available.
> 
> As noted here, the features will appear first as optional, in response
> to demand from commerce, from parents, from responsible
> institutions, to meet public calls for protection, for privacy, for
> combating threats to the American people.
> 
> Like wiretap law, use of the features for preventative snooping will
> initially require a court order, as provided in several of the crypto
> legislative proposals.
> 
> Like the wiretap orders, gradually there will be no secret court refusals
> for requests to use the technology in the national interest.
> 
> A publicity campain will proclaims that citizens with nothing to hide
> will have nothing to fear. Assurance of safety will be transparent,
> no clicks on the line. In a digital world, home-office devices will send
> lifestyle data to the device manufacturers over the always monitoring
> transparental Net.
> 
> Personal privacy will evaporate almost unnoticeably, as with the tv
> remote control, cp/defcon/bar brag, telephone, fax and forever-lovers
> pillowtalk.

Good post. The war is about to be joined.

At 7:34 PM -0700 9/14/98, nnburk wrote:
>Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
>
>1.      The United States will experience a significant economic
>recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.
>

Agreed. The chickens are coming home to roost. America will get what it
deserves. I figure the Y2K problem will be the most significant trigger
event.

>2.      As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s
>become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic
>increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.

See "A Clockwork Orange" for details. Today's Ebonics kids will be
tomorrow's Droogs.

>3.      America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in
>many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it
>related to racial/ethnic problems.

The inner cities will burn. 10 million ethnics will wipe themselves out.
White America (and Asian America, who are honorary whites, by the
University of California's admissions standards) will cluck, but will watch
the inner cities burn themselves out with only a "I told you so" attitude.
Miami, Chicago, Washington, LA, New York, Atlanta, New Orleans, and a dozen
other cities will be like Berlin after the war.

>
>4.      Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will
>increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement
>and security problem.

Freedom fighters, not terrorists.

>5.      As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there
>will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take
>the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.

Local justice, not vigilantism. OJ and You Know Who hanged side by side.
Several million welfare thieves given  the choice of hard labor for 20 or
so years, to repay the money they stole, or a bullet to the head. Their
choice.

>6.      Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a
>"retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security
>communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of
>technological advances, many companies and corporations will also
>move out of the urban environments as well.

Yes, more and more of my wealthy friends are doing this. Most of them are
moving to the country, where defenses are more naturally provided, and not
necessarily moving to gate communities (which are actually quite
indefensible when the welfare addicts and gangbangers start rioting and
dancing.)


>7.      Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law
>enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become
>privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies
>will primarily serve urban and rural communities.

"Snow Crash."

>
>8.      Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent
>roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized
>military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance
>and terrorist incidents.

Has already happened. The National Police Force is already mobilized
against religious groups which are deemed unacceptable, pace the Branch
Davidians.

>9.      Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's
>prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence.

Burn the prisons with the inmates locked inside. Then simply execute those
who commit the most serious crimes.


>10.     With the decrease of the possibility of major global
>warfare, the United States military will take on an increased
>domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement
>agencies.

Posse comitatus is already becoming a moot point. The Army will be
patrolling the streets within a few years, probably coterminous with Y2K
problems and the resulting martial law.

Militias and freedom fighters will have to start hitting U.S. military
installations. Many will die. Eventually the military will abandon the
Washington elite and will join the freedom fighters.

Ten million politicians and welfare thieves will be put up against the wall.


--Tim May

(This space left blank pending determ. of acceptability to the gov't.)
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
ComSec 3DES:   831-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Licensed Ontologist         | black markets, collapse of governments.

Tim May wrote:
> 
> Good post. The war is about to be joined.
> 

Thank you. My only regret is that I do not have a source. The material was 
provided by a local LEA from an unnamed "seminar."

> At 7:34 PM -0700 9/14/98, nnburk wrote:
> >4.      Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will
> >increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement
> >and security problem.
> 
> Freedom fighters, not terrorists.
> 

Yes. But I suppose like beauty, this is in the eye of the beholder. The 
victor writes the history books.


> >10.     With the decrease of the possibility of major global
> >warfare, the United States military will take on an increased
> >domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement
> >agencies.
> 
> Posse comitatus is already becoming a moot point. The Army will be
> patrolling the streets within a few years, probably coterminous with Y2K
> problems and the resulting martial law.
> 

I doubt we have long to wait. They know it's coming too.

nnburk wrote:
> 
> Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
> 
> 1.      The United States will experience a significant economic
> recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.

I see this as well and agree with it.  The recent stock market rocking back and
forth is a sign that something sucks, and sucks badly.  Y2K will of course make
this into a bigger horror.
 
> 2.      As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s
> become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic
> increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.

I don't necessarily see this.  What do you base this on?  Outside of where I
live, there is an elementary school.  Young kids these days are made to wear
UNIFORMS and carry ID's and can only go to school with see through bags and
must pass through metal detectors and/or be frisked.

Further, one of the local newspapers (Times? Daily News? Post?) here in NYC had
some story about how the city school security will be taken over by the police
department, effectively turning schools into jails.  IMHO, this won't turn out
delinquents, this will turn out slaves who are used to being treated as slaves,
are used to having no freedoms and don't expect them; they'll live without
privacy and they'll like it.  Those are your kids America: sheep!

Mindless slaves rarely rebel; unless you take away their MTV and their Sony
Playstations I doubt this.
 
> 3.      America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in
> many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it
> related to racial/ethnic problems.

Doubt it.  Unless they can't get food or money, or IF there are massive
blackouts they will riot, but will do so to break into stores and loot.
(Speaking based on LA riots and riots here in NYC about a decade or two ago
when power failed.)
 
> 4.      Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will
> increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement
> and security problem.

Okay, this is likely.
 
> 5.      As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there
> will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take
> the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.

The rest of your prediction sounds like you've watched Robocop a few times too
many and actually BELIEVED it! :)  Care to back it up with reasons?
 
> 6.      Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a
> "retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security
> communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of
> technological advances, many companies and corporations will also
> move out of the urban environments as well.
> 
> 7.      Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law
> enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become
> privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies
> will primarily serve urban and rural communities.
> 
> 8.      Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent
> roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized
> military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance
> and terrorist incidents.
> 
> 9.      Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's
> prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence.
> 
> 10.     With the decrease of the possibility of major global
> warfare, the United States military will take on an increased
> domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement
> agencies.

-- 

=====================================Kaos=Keraunos=Kybernetos==============
.+.^.+.|       Sunder       |Prying open my 3rd eye.  So good to see |./|\.
..\|/..|sunder@sundernet.com|you once again. I thought you were      |/\|/\
<--*-->| ------------------ |hiding, and you thought that I had run  |\/|\/
../|\..| "A toast to Odin,  |away chasing the tail of dogma. I opened|.\|/.
.+.v.+.|God of screwdrivers"|my eye and there we were....            |.....
======================= http://www.sundernet.com ==========================

Sunder wrote:
> 
> nnburk wrote:
> >
> > Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
> > ...
> > 2.      As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s
> > become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic
> > increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.
> 
> I don't necessarily see this.  What do you base this on?  

Um, actually, not _my_ predictions. Source was local LEA, obtained by them from some  
nameless seminar. (Sorry. Should have made that point clear earlier.)


> > 5.      As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there
> > will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take
> > the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.
> 
> The rest of your prediction sounds like you've watched Robocop a few times too
> many and actually BELIEVED it! :)  Care to back it up with reasons?
> 

See above. <grin> Actually, haven't seen Robocop!

At 10:22 AM -0700 9/15/98, Sunder wrote:
>nnburk wrote:
>>
>> Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
>>
>> 1.      The United States will experience a significant economic
>> recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.
>
>I see this as well and agree with it.  The recent stock market rocking
>back and
>forth is a sign that something sucks, and sucks badly.

Actually, I think much too much is being made of utterly _tiny_ percentage
moves in the stock market. The "Big Crash" a couple of weeks ago was the
"second largest point loss in the the history of the Dow Jones Industrial
Average."

Ah, but it was only #58 in terms of percentage.

And so on. The "rocking back and forth" is well within historical
standards. In fact, it's much less than we've seen at other times in the
past 25 years.

--Tim May

(This space left blank pending determ. of acceptability to the gov't.)
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
ComSec 3DES:   831-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Licensed Ontologist         | black markets, collapse of governments.